NJ School COVID Outbreaks Jump As New Report Says Risk Is Rising – Patch.com

NEW JERSEY — New Jersey had its biggest jump in school coronavirus outbreaks and cases this past week as a new report says the COVID-19 risk keeps rising for teachers and students.

New Jersey had 18 new in-school outbreaks and 103 new cases linked to those outbreaks this past week — a sharp increase over the previous week’s totals when four outbreaks and 16 new cases were reported, Gov. Phil Murphy said this week (see county-by-county list below).

Overall, New Jersey schools have had 88 in school outbreaks and 388 cases linked to in-school outbreaks since the school year began.

By contrast, during the three weeks from Nov. 12 to Dec. 2, New Jersey had 19 new in-school cases and 93 more outbreaks. The numbers track cases that are transmitted inside the schools.

“We’re certainly not batting 1,000,” said Murphy, who noted that the numbers could be the first indication that many people contracted the virus at family gatherings during Thanksgiving week.

Murphy continues to insist, however, that schools will remain open as long as the vast majority of school districts are able to contain the spread.

Murphy and other state officials have repeatedly cited studies that say schools have been safe and that there is no evidence that they can cause any widespread transmission. The various precautions — such as mask-wearing and social distancing, as well as remote options — have helped keep them safe, they say.

“I do not anticipate as a broad statewide matter that schools are going to close in New Jersey,” he said. “I will be very surprised if they do. That option has to stay on the table.”

He noted that the overall numbers are still low considering there are thousands of school buildings.

“We remind districts to remain vigilant,” Murphy said during a Wednesday news conference. “We know this has not been, it is not and it likely will be not be easy for anyone.”

At the same time, Murphy released models on Wednesday that indicated New Jersey could impose severe lockdowns if the worst-case scenario predictions come true, and the state does not do enough to protect itself amid the pandemic. Read more: Gov. Murphy Now Says NJ Daily COVID Cases Could Double To 12K

Murphy noted that more schools are deciding themselves to move to all-remote. He broke down the numbers:

87 districts are fully open for in-person instruction, down by two from the previous week.
423 are offering a hybrid of in-person and remote learning, down 15 from last week.
258 are offering all-remote learning, which rose by 12.

Here are the county-by-county numbers:

Murphy made the remarks as the state Department of Health’s most recent “COVID-19 Activity Level Report,” which is issued weekly for school districts, said the coronavirus risk continues to rise for all New Jersey counties.

The newest report, released on Thursday, says the coronavirus activity level remains “high.” The report is intended to inform school districts that they may have to take more serious steps — such as quarantining or even shutting down schools — if a child shows the symptoms of COVID-19.

“When it is high risk, there are some recommendations that we make together with local school boards,” said Edward Lifshitz, medical director for the state Department of Health.

“And those include things such as restricting activities that involve interactions multiple cohorts, meaning things that will bring together children and/or staff,” he added.

Indeed, a number of school districts have shifted to remote instruction or, in the case of Ocean City, made modifications such as eliminating lunch periods. Read more: Ocean City High School Removes Lunch Period From Hybrid Schedule

Here was the list of each school district in New Jersey and whether they planned to go remote, establish a hybrid plan of both in-person or remote instruction or go completely in-person (republished with permission courtesy of NJ Spotlight):

New Jersey’s statewide activity is also at a “high” level, the DOH said, now that the Garden State’s new daily case totals topped 6,000 for the first time ever this week.

The coronavirus risk rose to “high” in each of the counties because:

The new daily case rate in each of the counties rose to 10 or more per 100,000 people.
The percent of COVID-19-like illnesses rose above 5.52 in each of the counties.
The percent of positive cases rose above 10.01.

Murphy said New Jersey schools also have had to deal with issues originating outside of the school buildings rather than inside.

“What goes on outside the building clearly impacts what’s going on inside the building,” he said. “I worry more about transmission coming from the outside coming into the school setting.”

Either way, Murphy said the school settings are probably the safest places for children to be — outside of their homes — and the state will continue to “watch like a hawk” to make sure they stay that way.

Here is what the report says:

Key metrics rising in 21 counties

The report divides New Jersey into regions and assesses their rates of new cases, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The daily new COVID-19 virus case rate, per 100,000 people, rose to “very high” in all 21 counties, which means they exceed 25 cases per 1,000 people. The case rate nearly doubled in one week, Nov. 14-21, in Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union counties.

The rate of COVID-19-like illness (CLI) rose by about 50 percent in Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Salem and Somerset counties. These illnesses are defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of other types of coronavirus symptoms.

The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a “current activity level” based on case rates, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.

Data

The state uses various date to determine the level of activity. Here they are:

Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID-19 virus cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.
COVID-19-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.
Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 virus tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.
The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.

New Jersey Coronavirus Updates: Don’t miss local and statewide announcements about novel coronavirus precautions. Sign up for Patch alerts and daily newsletters.