NJ Counties Backslide In Coronavirus Crisis: Here’s Where – Patch.com

NEW JERSEY – A new report says key metrics in the coronavirus crisis have risen in a number of New Jersey counties, showing that the Garden State has backslid amid the COVID pandemic.

The state Department of Health’s most recent “COVID-19 Activity Level Report,” which is issued weekly, says the coronavirus activity level rose from “moderate” to “high” over the past week in three New Jersey counties: Hunterdon, Mercer and Somerset

New Jersey’s statewide activity also moved up from “moderate” to “high” in recent weeks now that cases have been climbing slightly. New Jersey had its largest single-day total of new cases in two months on Saturday.

Gov. Phil Murphy has said the new report provides regional metrics for health and safety risks “that have further guided our decision-making” in reopening New Jersey.

Indeed, the report was issued as New Jersey took some of its biggest reopening steps over the past two weeks, including the expansion of indoor capacity in movie theaters, restaurants and other businesses. Read more: NJ Lifts More COVID-19 Restrictions: What You Can, Can’t Do

New Jersey also has boasted its vaccination numbers, noting that more than 3.3 million have been administered. Read more: NJ COVID-19 Vaccine Update: Travel Quarantine Could Change

By rising to a “high” level, state officials have said, school districts in those counties may have to take more serious steps – such as quarantining or even shutting down schools – if a child shows the symptoms of COVID-19.

“If you’re in a very low-risk district, then you don’t need to treat it quite as harshly as if you’re in a much higher transmission community where the risk of that person actually having COVID is much higher,” said Edward Lifshitz, medical director for the state Department of Health.

Here is what the report says:

Key metrics rising in all counties

The report divides New Jersey into regions and assesses their rates of new cases, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The new COVID case rate rose by 13 percent in Hunterdon, Mercer, Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Somerset and Warren counties between March 6th and 13th.

The positivity rate, based on the percentage of those tested, also rose 11 percent in Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Salem counties during the same period.

The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a “current activity level” based on case rates, COVID-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.

Data

The state uses various date to determine the level of activity. Here they are:

  • Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.
  • COVID-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.
  • Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.
  • The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.

Here is the data and map for each region, including their activity levels, for the week ending March 13th:

Here is the map and data for the week ending March 6th:

The state’s COVID activity timeline

After falling to the “moderate” level, the DOH says New Jersey’s statewide activity has been “high” for three consecutive weeks.

The timeline shows that the state was at a moderate level for most of the past year. It was “high” in late in April and May 2020, and “very high” in late March and early April 2020, before falling to the low and moderate levels during the summer and fall.

The moderate label was first assigned before the state even publicly identified a case: February 15th.

Here is the timeline:

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