N.J.’s bruising elections could mean trouble for these House Democrats in 2022 – NJ.com

Already facing historical trends that show a president’s party losing congressional seats in midterm elections, the road to re-election for four targeted New Jersey House Democrats got even rockier following Tuesday’s gubernatorial election.

Gov. Phil Murphy narrowly defeated former Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli in an election much closer than polls indicated, while Republicans gained seats in the state Legislature and won the governorship and the two other statewide races in Virginia.

“This caught the attention of every member of Congress from New Jersey,” said Rep. Donald Norcross, D-1st Dist.

The unexpected Republican strength on Tuesday could encourage strong candidates to take on the four Democrats who flipped GOP-held seats in 2016 and 2018: 3rd District Rep. Andy Kim, 5th District Rep. Josh Gottheimer, 7th District Rep. Tom Malinowski and 11th District Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

“The election results make clear that Tom Malinowski, Andy Kim, Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer are doomed,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Camille Gallo said. “Republicans have a long list of talented candidates lining up to run and win in New Jersey.”

Two years ago, the NRCC also announced it was going after the four Democrats but fielded only one strong challenger, state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr., R-Union, who barely lost to Malinowski.

Kean is running again, but he might not be the only top Republican recruit.

“If some strong Republican candidate was on the fence about whether to run in 2022, looking at Virginia and looking at New Jersey would probably push him over into running,” Democratic consultant Peter Fenn said.

And just as their victories were key to Democrats taking back the House in 2018, their survival may well determine whether the party can keep control after the 2022 elections.

“Those four races everybody’s going to be watching again,” Republican consultant Mike DuHaime said.

The 2021 results showed a decline in Democratic support in some key counties.

In Burlington, the Democratic portion of Kim’s district, Murphy’s share of the vote dropped to 53.2% from 56.5% when he first ran in 2017, according to the Associated Press.

Murphy’s percentage in heavily Democratic Essex County, parts of which are in Malinowski’s and Sherrill’s districts, dipped to 73.7% from 79.6% in 2017. And Murphy’s 52.3% share of the vote in Bergen County, the source of 79% of Gottheimer’s votes in 2020, was less than the 56.6% he received during his first race.

There was some good news in the numbers, however. In Somerset County, a major part of Malinowski’s district, Murphy increased his vote share to 50.8% from 49.8% even though it was Ciattarelli’s home county.

But Malinowski cautioned against using the 2021 numbers as a predictor of 2022.

“National elections are very different in New Jersey,” he said. “You have vastly different levels of turnout.”

Still, American elections are becoming more and more nationalized. While in the White House, Donald Trump saw a huge swing in suburban areas to the Democrats. With Trump out of office, Tuesday’s results indicated that the former president may not be the fear factor he once was.

Murphy went after Ciattarelli for his appearance at a rally in support of Trump’s disproven claims of voter fraud in the 2020 elections. But the Republican ignored the former president during the campaign and instead talked about taxes, the economy and the coronavirus, which apparently resonated with swing voters more than concern over Trump.

At the same time, the Delta variant forced new pandemic restrictions and slowed the economic recovery, Democrats in Washington bickered over new spending, and Biden’s approval ratings in New Jersey dropped to 43% in an October Monmouth University Poll, with 49% disapproving.

“It sets a trajectory of how Republicans can win in the state going forward,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of Rutgers’ Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. “It’s a signal that the way Republicans win in New Jersey is going down the middle.”

DuHaime said that the endangered Democrats seeking re-election will be running for the first time without Trump occupying center stage.

“If you’re one of these Democrats, you’ve never run without Donald Trump on the ballot or as president,” he said. “This is the first time running without Donald Trump as a foil. It’s going to be more difficult.”

But Trump, considering a 2024 presidential run, could inject himself into 2022, endorsing and campaigning for numerous Republican candidates and demanding fealty to his false claims of a stolen election.

Already, several New Jersey congressional candidates have trekked to the former president’s golf club in Bedminster, some asking for his endorsement and others simply posting pictures of them posing with him.

“Whether Trump is a factor is up to Trump,” said Ben Dworkin, director of Rowan University’s Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship. “The more Donald Trump is a presence, the more unified Democrats become and the more they will be able to use Trump as a placeholder for their Republican opponents.”

Democrats said they could change the subject with passage of the twin spending bills that fund the Gateway Tunnel under the Hudson River, lower health care and child care costs, fight climate change, and restore at least part of the federal deduction for state and local taxes, which Republicans capped at $10,000 in their 2017 tax law.

But even on Friday, passage of any legislation was held up for hours because of ongoing disagreements between moderate and progressive members of the House Democratic Caucus., while Biden called lawmakers asking for their support.

Eventually, the House approved the infrastructure bill while moderates promised to back the social spending bill when it reached the floor later this month.

That spending would be in addition to the $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill passed in March over unanimous Republican opposition that provided $1,400 direct payments to most Americans, cut taxes for lower- and middle-class families through an expanded the child tax credit, and provided $350 billion to states and localities.

“This is our fault that we haven’t messaged well enough,” Fenn said. “We have to have a way to shift to that message but still call bull—- on the other stuff, on critical race theory, on socialism, on defund the police.”

Malinowski, for example, said that he was first elected promising to get funding for Gateway, eliminate the $10,000 deduction cap — a big deal in high-property tax New Jersey — and lower health care costs.

“What we need to do is point out relentlessly that Democrats are the party that gets things done and Republicans are bat-stuff crazy,” Malinowski said. “I can’t imagine a better way for re-election than saying, ‘I did everything I promised to do and therefore you should have confidence that I will do the things you need me to do now.’”

The wild card in all this is redistricting. The bipartisan independent commission is holding hearings and will eventually decide how to draw the lines for the state’s 12 congressional districts. None of the lawmakers or potential challengers know yet where they’ll be running.

“We don’t know what redistricting is going to look like,” Dworkin said. “That will have a huge impact on who runs and who ends up winning.”

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Jonathan D. Salant may be reached at jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him at @JDSalant.

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