N.J. reports 5,370 COVID-19 cases, 68 more deaths. Hospitalizations increase again. – NJ.com

New Jersey health officials announced 5,370 more coronavirus positive tests and 68 newly-confirmed deaths on Thursday as hospitals saw an increase in patients for the fourth consecutive day.

The state’s seven-day average for positive COVID-19 tests increased Thursday to 5,216, the highest since the start of the outbreak in March, though a lack of testing availability in the spring likely undercounted the extent of the early infections. The seven-day average is now 26% higher than a week ago, and 103% higher than a month ago.

“These numbers are alarming,” Gov. Phil Murphy said in a tweet. “We need to hang on a little longer. Mask up. Social distance. Stay informed.”

The state’s rate of transmission increased Thursday to 1.12, up from 1.10 a day earlier. Any number above 1 indicates that the outbreak is expanding. When the transmission rate increases, that also indicates the rise in new infections is escalating faster. The transmission rate has increased for four days since hitting a recent low of 1.03.

New Jersey’s death toll rose Thursday to 17,608 with 15,740 confirmed fatalities and 1,868 considered probable from COVID-19. The 68 deaths reported Thursday brings the total for this month to 593.

The state has had 386,606 total positive tests over the last nine months out of 6.5 million administered, though that does not include recently-deployed rapid tests.

CORONAVIRUS RESOURCES: Live map tracker | Newsletter | Homepage

Murphy on Wednesday revealed two pairs of moderate-case and worst-case scenarios for the second wave. The moderate forecasts call for New Jersey to hit between 6,300 and 9,100 daily cases and between 5,700 and 7,100 patients hospitalized over the next two months.

A pair of worst-case scenario models developed by the state Department of Health and Murphy’s Office of Innovation, however, show the state pushing past the 8,300 hospitalizations peak seen in the spring when the first wave hit with 8,700 patients requiring hospital care by mid-January or early February.

COUNTY-BY-COUNTY CASES (sorted by most new)

  • Hudson County: 36,049 positive tests (549 new), 1,463 confirmed deaths (159 probable)
  • Bergen County: 39,303 positive tests (535 new), 1,933 confirmed deaths (254 probable)
  • Passaic County: 34,219 positive tests (484 new), 1,214 confirmed deaths (144 probable)
  • Middlesex County: 35,313 positive tests (444 new), 1,327 confirmed deaths (207 probable)
  • Essex County: 39,782 positive tests (436 new), 2,054 confirmed deaths (234 probable)
  • Monmouth County: 24,281 positive tests (401 new), 838 confirmed deaths (94 probable)
  • Camden County: 22,740 positive tests (376 new), 662 confirmed deaths (58 probable)
  • Ocean County: 25,148 positive tests (358 new), 1,121 confirmed deaths (70 probable)
  • Union County: 31,557 positive tests (322 new), 1,299 confirmed deaths (171 probable)
  • Burlington County: 16,264 positive tests (266 new), 517 confirmed deaths (45 probable)
  • Morris County: 15,970 positive tests (210 new), 733 confirmed deaths (157 probable)
  • Gloucester County: 10,959 positive tests (192 new), 308 confirmed deaths (8 probable)
  • Mercer County: 15,621 positive tests (184 new), 641 confirmed deaths (37 probable)
  • Somerset County: 10,336 positive tests (113 new), 544 confirmed deaths (82 probable)
  • Cumberland County: 5,909 positive tests (108 new), 180 confirmed deaths (8 probable)
  • Atlantic County: 9,270 positive tests (107 new), 300 confirmed deaths (16 probable)
  • Salem County: 2,047 positive tests (58 new), 94 confirmed deaths (5 probable)
  • Warren County: 2,951 positive tests (50 new), 161 confirmed deaths (13 probable)
  • Hunterdon County: 2,893 positive tests (44 new), 79 confirmed deaths (54 probable)
  • Cape May County: 1,893 positive tests (33 new), 109 confirmed deaths (13 probable)
  • Sussex County: 3,156 positive tests (33 new), 163 confirmed deaths (39 probable)

HOSPITALIZATIONS

The number of people hospitalized as of Wednesday night is the highest level since May 14 — when 3,706 people were being treated nearly 7 months ago.

There were 3,545 patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases across New Jersey’s 71 hospitals as of Wednesday (two more than the previous day based on adjusted numbers for Tuesday).

Though only a slight uptick from the prior day, it marked the fourth consecutive day hospitalizations increased after a brief two-day dip last week.

Of those hospitalized Wednesday, 644 were in critical or intensive care (14 more than the previous night), including 412 on ventilators (the same as the previous night).

There were 434 coronavirus patients discharged from hospitals Wednesday, according to the state’s coronavirus dashboard.

SCHOOL CASES

New Jersey officials on Wednesday reported 18 new in-school outbreaks and 103 new positive cases among students, teachers and school staff in one of the worst weeks since the state started tracking how many people were being infected with COVID-19 at school.

The names of the schools were not released to protect the privacy of the children and school staff members who tested positive, state officials said.

Although hundreds of school districts have announced coronavirus cases and dozens of New Jersey schools have temporarily switched to all remote classes since the start of the school year, state health officials have said 88 schools have had confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks.

There have now been 388 total cases of in-school transmission in those 88 schools since the start of the school year.

Those numbers do not include students or staff believed to have been infected outside school, or cases that can’t be confirmed as in-school outbreaks.

Though the numbers keep rising every week, Murphy has said the school outbreak statistics remain below what state officials were expecting when schools reopened for in-person classes. The extensive rules for schools, which include social distancing guidelines for classrooms and strict mask requirements, have made schools among the safest places in the state, he said.

But for the second week in a row, every region in New Jersey is orange on the state’s COVID-19 map, indicating “high” virus activity across the state.

The color coding on the map is being closely watched by many school districts because if any area moves to red, indicating “very high” coronavirus activity, all schools in that region will be required to close classrooms and switch to all-remote learning, according to state health guidelines.

AGE BREAKDOWN

Broken down by age, those 30 to 49 years old make up the largest percentage of New Jersey residents who have caught the virus (31.6%), followed by those 50-64 (24.2%), 18-29 (18.9%), 65-79 (11.3%), 80 and older (6.3%), 5-17 (6.2%), and 0-4 (1.3%).

On average, the virus has been more deadly for older residents, especially those with pre-existing conditions. Nearly half the state’s COVID-19 deaths have been among residents 80 and older (47.73%), followed by those 65-79 (31.68%), 50-64 (15.89%), 30-49 (4.31%), 18-29 (0.37%), 5-17 (0%) and 0-4 (0.02%).

At least 7,291 of the state’s COVID-19 deaths have been among residents and staff members at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities. That number has been rising again at a steeper rate in recent weeks.

GLOBAL NUMBERS

As of Thursday, there have been 69 million positive COVID-19 tests across the world, according to a running tally by Johns Hopkins University. More than 1.57 million people have died from coronavirus-related complications.

The U.S. has reported the most cases with 15.39 million and the most deaths at more than 289,400.

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Matt Arco may be reached at marco@njadvancemedia.com.