Julie and Mike examine the shotgun marriage of Trump and Van Drew (R-Outcast) – NJ.com

Can Americans still have a sensible and friendly political discussion across the partisan divide? The answer is yes, and we intend to prove it. Julie Roginsky, a Democrat, and Mike DuHaime, a Republican, are consultants who have worked on opposite teams for their entire careers yet have remained friends throughout. Here, they discuss the week’s events, with prompts from Tom Moran, editorial page editor of The Star-Ledger.

Q. Several weeks ago, Gov. Phil Murphy’s rivals claimed they had the votes to overrule the governor’s wishes and replace John Currie as party chairman. But now we’re told Currie will stay put, until June of 2021. Is that a win for Murphy?

Roginsky: Everyone in the establishment wing of the party got a little something, from Governor Murphy to the county chairs who opposed Chairman Currie. Chairman Currie will stay for another year and then will be replaced by LeRoy Jones the year that the governor is running for re-election. Separately, from what I have read, the redistricting seats, which should have been exclusively the governor’s to control, will instead be divided between Senate President Sweeney, Speaker Coughlin and Essex, Hudson and Bergen Counties. The majority of these seats, therefore, will be controlled by the Jones coalition. And, despite what they were hoping, the progressives who managed Chairman Currie’s campaign likely won’t get a seat at the redistricting table, which I personally think is a shame, because their voices are important.

DuHaime: This is a win for the governor. His state party chair was reportedly out, and now he wins without a vote. The win may have come at the cost of some compromise, but it was far better than risking a loss in an election. The compromise sounds like a smart one from the outside for all sides. It seems only natural that the Governor, Senate President, the Speaker and the most powerful vote-delivering counties would have seats on the redistricting commission.

Q. Rep. Jeff Van Drew said he will switch parties and become a Republican after he votes against impeachment. But Republican leaders in South Jersey who have fought him for years said they might oppose him, and Democrats want to tar and feather him. Donald Trump supports him, but is that enough?

Roginsky: It depends how far President Trump goes for him in the Republican primary. Rep. Van Drew is taking quite a big gamble on the president’s loyalty, which is not a character trait I would normally associate with Trump. Republicans running against him will be able to say that Van Drew voted against the president’s agenda more than 90% of the time and supported Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. Democrats, of course, are incredibly energized to come out against Trump in the general election next year and even more energized to punish someone they supported, only to have him pull the rug out of from under them. Van Drew is in the fight of his life.

DuHaime: If Donald Trump supports him, that will be good enough for most GOP primary voters. The other person who matters greatly here is newly-elected state senator Mike Testa. He’s coming off a big win taking out an incumbent Democrat for Van Drew’s old senate seat. He’s also a former GOP county chair (Cumberland) and is one of the state co-chairs for the Trump campaign. He’s a rising GOP star in South Jersey, and his support will be meaningful. Make no mistake, this is bad for Democrats and good for Republicans in South Jersey. Impeachment will come and go in the next six weeks, but this party switch underscores what people in both parties have been seeing for a decade. The working class voters in the southernmost part of New Jersey are increasingly uncomfortable with the far leftward lurch of their party. These votes have been slowly but surely trending away from Democrats since Christie first won there in 2009.

Q. The state Senate backed off a bill that would force more children to get immunizations after a massive and loud demonstration Monday. Given the solid evidence showing these shots are safe, what do you make of the passion of the protestors? Will the Senate back down, or is the political heat too high?

Roginsky: This issue has always stirred passion on both sides. I am all for religious freedom, but not when your religion begins to infringe on me. The reality is that other children are in danger because some parents won’t immunize their kids. And now I am going to walk away from my computer for a week, while my Twitter feed gets bombarded by the anti-science contingent of the readership.

DuHaime: Religious freedom does not give one the right to endanger others any more than the freedom of speech gives one the right to falsely scream “fire” in a crowded movie theater. Immunizations have saved countless lives the world over. Don’t get me wrong, I really struggle with the idea of a nanny state telling everyone what to do, but the government has the difficult task of protecting the masses while balancing individual rights and freedoms. In the case of public safety, I think the rights of crowd is paramount.

Q. Voters will decide in November whether to legalize recreational weed in New Jersey. I’ll bet either of you $1 that it passes by at least 10 points. Any takers?

Roginsky: If I am not mistaken, you already owe me $1 from when you said that weed would be legalized a year ago. So sure, I’ll take your money again. It will pass, but not by double digit margins.

DuHaime: Stop taking Tom’s weed money. Agree with Julie that it passes, but closer than expected.

Q. President Trump announced a tentative deal on trade with China that will help farmers in states he needs to win in 2020 but does little to force the structural changes he sought, like ending the massive subsidies of Chinese industry and the forced transfer of technology from American firms. How’s that going to play out politically?

Roginsky: I refuse to be the Charlie Brown to Donald Trump’s Lucy. We’ve seen these “tentative trade deals” with China myriad times in the past and none has ever come to fruition. I won’t try to kick that football again, because it will be pulled away again at the last moment.

DuHaime: The farmers are getting crushed in this trade war, so they are now being further subsidized by taxpayers in states like NJ. Are we really supposed to believe that the largest communist dictatorship in the world will stop subsidizing companies, ones they probably already own? US companies will continue to develop technology. China will continue to try to steal it. But they still need to buy their soy beans from somewhere, so it might as well be Iowa. China is not our friend, not our enemy. We just need each other and should behave accordingly.

Q. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell turned down a request to call witnesses with direct knowledge of President Trump’s action on Ukraine, including Mick Mulvaney, the chief of staff, and John Bolton, the national security advisor. What does that tell us about the coming trial in the Senate?

Roginsky: Listen, even show trials in the Soviet Union called witnesses to pretend to have a semblance of legitimacy. This McConnell farce wouldn’t even pass the laugh test there.

DuHaime: I guess I missed the part in the House where the Democrats allowed the GOP minority to have a day full of witnesses. Of course that didn’t happen because Democrats ran the House proceedings. The Republicans will run the Senate’s. Elections have consequences.

Roginsky: The House acts as a grand jury for the purpose of impeachment. Remind me the last time defense witnesses were allowed in a grand jury. Now that the House has effectively indicted, the defense and the prosecution should be able to hold a fair trial in the Senate.

DuHaime: The analogy falls short because this is not a criminal trial, but an impeachment, which is inherently political.

Roginsky: Then let’s be clear that the same Republicans who impeached Bill Clinton for lying about sex think it’s politically in their interest to excuse abuse of presidential power and obstruction.

A note to readers: DuHaime and Roginsky are both deeply engaged in politics and commercial advocacy in New Jersey, so both have connections to many players we discuss in this column. Given that, we will not normally disclose each specific connection, trusting that readers understand they are not impartial observers. DuHaime, a principal at Mercury Public Affairs, was chief political advisor to former Gov. Chris Christie, and has worked for Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and President George W. Bush. Roginsky, a principal of Optimus Communications, has served as senior advisor to campaigns of Cory Booker, Frank Lautenberg and Phil Murphy. Henceforth, we will disclose specific connections in the text only when readers might otherwise be misled, at the discretion of the editors.