Happy Election Day! – POLITICO – Politico
Good Tuesday morning!
Polls are once again open. Welcome to the most competitive gubernatorial election since 2009!
It’s a race where you can easily see reassurances, no matter who you want to win. For Murphy supporters it’s a million more registered Democrats, public polling consistently in the governor’s favor, Democrats’ cushion of hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots and a normally-fractious Democratic Party at least acting unified.
For Ciattarelli supporters: A national mood that has swung against President Joe Biden, voter registration gains on Democrats (Republicans gained over 1,000 voters last month while Democrats lost almost 1,000), a strong showing from Ocean and Monmouth Counties for in-person early voting, late enthusiasm for the candidate and a hope that New Jersey polls are off because of bad state-level polling elsewhere in 2020. For Ciattarelli fans, this has the makings of an upset that most don’t see coming. They’ve also had a few polls from conservative outfits that show a closer race, but since those polls don’t share their full questions, crosstabs, etc., I’m not going to include them here.
No matter what happens tonight, the signs were there. If we know the result tomorrow morning, I’ll pretend I told you which signs to look at all along.
WHERE’S MURPHY? Two campaign events during the day: 9:30 a.m. in Cherry Hill and 11:45 a.m. in Newark, then in Asbury Park for the results. Ciattarelli will be in Bridgewater for the results.
QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Ciattarelli is the kind of Republican who, on paper and under the right circumstances, can be competitive in New Jersey … Going up against an incumbent with an approval above 50%, I think, creates a barrier [for Ciattarelli] that is not there for Youngkin in Virginia.” — Steve Kornacki
HAPPY BIRTHDAY — BPU’s Crystal Pruitt
TIPS? FEEDBACK? HATE MAIL? Email me at [email protected]
TUNE IN TONIGHT — For some live chat POLITICO analysis on New Jersey and Virginia here.
INTO THE WEEDS — A short election eve dispatch from Daniel Han: Ciattarelli spent yesterday touring small businesses across north and central Jersey — in keeping with his “Main Street” campaign message and promise to improve the state’s business climate. Murphy waded into friendly territory in Union City — which featured an abundance of state Senator/Mayor Brian Stack portraits and fewer Murphy signs — and then South Orange. Both candidates stuck to their talking points throughout. At Carteret bar, Ciattarelli assured one first responder they would not face an absolute vaccine mandate if he were governor, and promised another supporter to freeze property taxes automatically at age 65. Murphy touted a full pension payment and listed off his progressive accomplishments during his rallies, from strict environmental regulations to legalized cannabis (the latter of which could be smelled in the crowd). “Even in the midst of the overwhelming tragedy of this pandemic folks, it is sunrise in New Jersey,” Murphy said in South Orange.
WHAT TO WATCH — Governor’s race and other things to watch on Election Day, by POLITICO’s Katherine Landergan and Matt Friedman: It’s Election Day in New Jersey, with the race between incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy and Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli at the top of the ticket. Most opinion polls give Murphy a lead of between 6 points and 11 points. Should he defeat Ciattarelli, a former three-term member of the General Assembly, Murphy would be the first Democratic governor reelected in four decades. A Ciattarelli victory in deep-blue New Jersey would send shock waves through Trenton, which has been controlled by the Democrats for the past four years. It would also have national implications for the 2022 midterm elections, possibly foreshadowing disaster for Democrats. In addition to the governor’s race, all 120 seats in the state Legislature are on the ballot. Voters will also be asked two public questions to expand New Jersey‘s gambling laws.
YOU DO NOT WANT STACK TO FEEL BERNED — “Stack versus Sanders as time ticks down in Murphy world,” by InsiderNJ’s Max Pizarro: “It started last week when Stack – who serves as the mayor of his Hudson County city an specializes in generating massive election numbers – got a call last week from Murphy’s inner sanctum. The governor wouldn’t be able to make a scheduled rally with Stack on his home turf. Why the hell not? Bernie Sanders would be in town, stumping for Murphy. It was almost too much to comprehend. Stack turns human bodies into vote totals for whomever he designates emperor of the realm … It takes a lot of time, money, energy and organization to put together a big, governor-sized rally. Murphy throwing over Stack for Bernie was the New Jersey version of giving the mayor of Boston the finger in order to stand next to Ben Affleck … The Murphy camp and Stack managed to reschedule the event for tonight … He didn’t want to be a Star … Stack just wanted to be politically locally grounded, and strictly observant of protocols, and true to one’s word. For Murphy’s part, his allies could high five with the rationalization that while moderates and progressives push and shove in Washington, D.C. with no end in sight, they have a campaign that could accommodate progressive Vermont socialist Sanders and raging broom handle-job providing pragmatist Stack, literally the son of a public transit worker.”
GOLD SACKS — State funding, new projects abound as Murphy rounds out campaign, by POLITICO’s Sam Sutton: One of Gov. Phil Murphy’s strongest advantages in the final days of the 2021 gubernatorial race can be summed up in three words: He’s the governor. In between campaign events, the New Jersey Democrat in recent weeks has announced billions of dollars in additional state and federal funding for everything from child care programs to transportation grants. He‘s attended groundbreaking ceremonies for a $250 million wind port, a $283 million high school in Perth Amboy and a $300 million multi-hyphenate tech village in Jersey City. And then there were the VIP visits: President Joe Biden was in Kearny last week as construction began on a new, $1.6 billion Portal North Bridge that will ease congested commuter lines into New York City
THE CRASSROOTS — “New Jersey GOP focuses on bottom of the ticket school board races to drive voter turnout,” by The Record’s Matt Fagan: “New Jersey Republicans are increasingly seeing an opportunity to make political gains by targeting their message to parents disgruntled with mask and/or vaccine mandates as well as to those that object to the state’s new inclusion and equity curricula requirements.of the ticket school board races to drive voter turnout … While typically low-key and often uncontested, in 2021 races for nonpartisan school boards seats have often turned into angry campaigns as parents and elected officials plunged into a maelstrom of debate about masks, vaccines and curriculum … This year, Bergen has 317 candidates for 191 seats, a ratio of 1.66 per open seat. In 2020, Bergen had 211 candidates for 156 open seats for a ratio of 1.35. In 2021 Passaic County has 92 candidates for 53 open seats—a ratio of 1.74 vs. 2020’s 1.45 ratio with 68 candidates for 47 seats. Statewide there are 2,174 candidates vying for 1,594 seats, a ratio of 1.36 in 2021 vs. a 1.26 ratio in 2020. While this year is not highest, it is creeping toward the last peak 1.44 candidates in 2011.”
BUT… — “Where are all the school board candidates? 156 open ballot slots on Election Day“
BECAUSE I WANT TO CONTRADICT MY OWN ARTICLE FROM YESTERDAY — “How New Jersey may prove some politics still is local,” by CNN’s Harry Enten: “You may not have heard much about the election in the Garden State between incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. One big reason why: In an era in which many non-presidential elections, like Virginia’s, have clear national implications, the race in New Jersey looks like it’ll prove that some politics is still local … I went back and looked at the gubernatorial elections in the year before and year of every midterm since 2010. The past presidential vote in each state was not statistically significantly correlated with the governor’s result, once you controlled for incumbency. In other words, it didn’t really matter on average what the tilt of a state was on the presidential level, when voters had a record to judge the incumbent governor on.”
A HOME RUN ON A LITTLE LEAGUE FIELD — About 3 percent of eligible New Jerseyans voted early in-person, by POLITICO’s Matt Friedman: New Jersey’s first-ever period of in-person early voting on machines is over, and 207,863 people took advantage of it, Secretary of State Tahesha Way said Monday. That accounts for just over 3 percent of New Jersey’s nearly 6.6 million registered voters. Nevertheless, during a press conference in Trenton on Monday, Gov. Phil Murphy called the program “a home run as far as I’m concerned.” Murphy signed the law enacting in-person early voting in March, requiring counties to set up several polling places within their borders. It ran from Oct. 23 through Oct. 31.
—“The link between New Jersey And Virginia governor’s races”
—“Murphy, Ciattarelli touring NJ as campaign coming to close”
—“Jack Ciattarelli: Why I want your vote to become New Jersey’s next governor”
—Mulshine: “The big election question: How will the turnout turn out?”
GRAY POTPAYA — “Possessing marijuana is legal in N.J. but these ‘gray’ market operators got busted,” by NJ Advance Media’s Susan K. Livio: ”Six months ago, Dan Kessel of Berkeley Township talked openly about Bud Hub, the cannabis gifting and delivery business he ran with his sister, almost daring law enforcement authorities to investigate and musing about ‘my goal to be legal.’ Today, Kessel sits in the Ocean County Correctional Facility where he’s been held without bail since Oct. 20. Berkeley Township Police arrested him on money laundering and marijuana distribution charges. They confiscated his jeep, with its Bud Hub signage, $400,000 in cash and an unknown quantity of marijuana from his Berkeley home and a property in Toms River. Kessel, 36, is the latest person to be caught operating in the ‘grah’ cannabis market — the sale of goods and services that are technically legal, but are not authorized to be sold.”
400 MASTROS — “NJ Transit should get $3.6B in federal aid, but N.Y. is holding it up,” by NJ Advance Media’s Larry Higgs: “The day of reckoning could be approaching for NJ Transit riders as the agency has used all of two types of federal transit coronavirus aid it’s received, and is blocked from using $3.6 billion in other federal money it is supposed to receive, but is held up due to a stalemate with New York state. Gov. Phil Murphy could use what he called the ‘nuclear option’ to force New York to free up that money, but declined to say whether he would when asked by NJ Advance Media at a press conference on Monday. The dispute? New York doesn’t want to accept the same federal formula 47 other states used to divide COVID-19 funds intended to keep trains and buses rolling as transit systems recover. Instead, it wants $637 million more in federal COVID-19 transit aid than New Jersey and Connecticut, blocking the other states from accessing the all the funds. The nuclear option would be vetoing the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey’s meeting minutes, which would slam the brakes on any business the Authority’s board approved that month.”
—Rutgers-Eagleton poll gives Murphy an 8-point lead over Ciattarelli
—“Kornacki says he’ll look for national implications in N.J. results”
—Hennelly: “Breaking Jersey Dems’ second term jinx as Biden sinks lower”
—“New Jersey commuters driving into Manhattan are only part of the problem | Opinion”
—Video: “Did Gov. Murphy deliver on 2017 campaign commitments?”
—“Hitting the streets in LD16, and navigating anger, negativity, hardship and history”
SAVED BY THE JEFF BELL — “Generation Trump Meet N.J.’s young Republicans. Many are not who you think they are,” by NJ Advance Media’s Matthew Stanmyre: “Call it Generation Trump — the legion of young Republicans who define themselves by former President Donald Trump or cut their political teeth during his rise to power. It is emerging as a formidable bloc within the New Jersey party, whether its disciples are galvanized behind the conservative polestar that is Trump or merely support many of his policies, if not his brand of divisive politics. But they’re not necessarily Trump clones. Some are the children of immigrants. Many support the LGBTQ community, are at least open-minded on abortion, and believe in climate change and its destructive impact on the environment. And a good number view Trump not as the messiah, but rather one of several voices within the party. ‘It is a split,’ Zachary Wilson, vice-chairman of the New Jersey College Republicans and a student at Stockton University, said of young conservative support for Trump. ‘I see him as a leader of the future of the Republican party, and not the leader.’ … Most don’t resemble the young Republican caricature, the Zack Morris look-a-like with the sweater wrapped around his shoulders driving a convertible, or the angry, disaffected white man who blames minorities and the LGBTQ community for his problems.”
—“Migrant detainees in Bergen County ask Menendez, Booker to support their release”
—“Voters with disabilities gain political clout in NJ as ballots become more accessible”
—Democrats close to clinching drug pricing deal
MILLBURNED — “After the flood, it’s not just ‘about the coming back’,” by Kevin Armstrong for The New York Times: “Unable to push the restaurant’s front door open, [Kevin Cao] told his five employees to leave everything and led them to a back room, where he climbed atop a refrigerator and pushed up ceiling tiles. They climbed into the ceiling’s crawl space and scrambled over to HighLine Fashion, a neighboring store. Mr. Cao tore open the ceiling there and descended a ladder into a restroom. They waded through chest-high water to the front door to escape … Merchants must be nimble in Millburn. The river once powered a paper mill, but following Ida’s flash flooding, retailers and restaurateurs are gauging how much more water they can absorb in the affluent town’s flood zone, where they peddle everything from hemp to hibachi chicken. Forever competing with high-end stores at the Mall at Short Hills, Main Street business owners are re-evaluating their models and insurance plans as fears of more frequent flooding grow in Ida’s wake.”
LITERAL ASTROTURFING — “Local ballot questions pit neighbor against neighbor across N.J.,” by New Jersey Monitor’s Dana DiFilippo, Sophie Nietu-Munoz and Nikita Biryukov: “Long-simmering tensions boiled over in Maplewood this year as residents began a battle over the fate of DeHart Park and its beleaguered grass field, the only open space in this Essex County township’s least affluent and least white census tract. The battle was last waged in 2008, when residents narrowly rejected replacing the grass at DeHart with artificial turf, a move that left resentment burning for a little more than a decade, even as the DeHart field grew ever more dilapidated. Now, a resident-driven petition drive has begun a repeat fight the Township Committee sought to avoid when it approved a $1.8 million bond for turfing DeHart in a 4-1 vote this July … Teaneck, voters will decide whether to move their nonpartisan municipal elections from May to November. ‘Donald Trump unfortunately made politics nastier than it already was. A lot of people unfortunately subscribe to that sort of politics, regardless of party,’ said Mike Pagan, a first-term Teaneck councilman. Spring used to be the traditional time for nonpartisan municipal elections in New Jersey until a 2011 law allowed towns to move them to November.”
—“Lawsuit claims Hoboken and Union City are conspiring to block approved development”
—“Burlington GOP seeks a comeback”
—“GOP defend county commissioner majority in Salem, the smallest county in N.J.”
—“Jersey City Superintendent of Schools Franklin Walker to retire early next year”
—“Election ’21: These are the key contests to watch in Central Jersey”
—“Here’s when Carteret expects to begin construction on its ferry terminal”
INSERT SUCCESSION JOKE HERE — Rutgers-Camden faculty Senate considering ’no confidence’ vote against chancellor, by POLITICO’s Carly Sitrin: Members of Rutgers University-Camden’s faculty Senate for the School of Arts and Sciences are weighing the possibility of a “no confidence” vote against new Chancellor Antonio Tillis after the removal of a dean from his post. Howard Marchitello, dean of the School of Arts and Sciences, spoke publicly about his dismissal for the first time during the faculty Senate’s meeting on Monday, calling his firing “insulting” and unexpected. “There were no discussions or communications with me, formal or informal regarding my performance or suitability as dean prior to my dismissal,” Marchitello said. “Summary dismissal mid-semester is punitive, and is meant to humiliate. Dismissal from a deanship is effectively the end of an administrative career. ” Rutgers-Camden Provost Dan Hart emailed faculty and staff on Oct. 27, signaling Marchitello’s removal as dean and his return to the faculty.
THUNDERDOME DEATH MATCH BETWEEN URBAN AND RURAL ATV RIDERS IS THE ONLY SOLUTION — “’Destroyed in the blink of an eye.’ Off-roaders are hurting Pinelands. What can be done?” by The Asbury Park Press’ Jerry Carino: “The sandy “road” to Mount Tabor, one of the highest peaks in the Pine Barrens, is littered with ditches that could swallow a sedan whole. Fortunately, Jason Howell’s truck was up to the task. “The last time I was here (a year ago), this was not a thing,” Howell said. “We did not have to deal with this.” He’s referring to the erosion caused by off-roaders, whose illegal, wheel-spinning joyrides have pockmarked Colliers Mills Wildlife Management Area and other swaths of the Pinelands. Mount Tabor is a salient example. This natural wonder, one of the precious spots in the Pine Barrens where you can see over treetops, is scarred on all sides by a half-dozen trenches that run three four deep and wide enough for monster trucks to careen up and over the hill.”
—“Three doctors in their 50s sue Hackensack University Medical Center for age discrimination”
—“Supply chain logjam: NJ food banks face rising food prices and scarcity of supplies”
—“Inmate who escaped from Edna Mahan prison back in custody”
—“Kal Penn on Hollywood racism, finding love and working in the Obama White House”
