Despite what poll says, many Democrats nervous about Menendez – Politico

Good Monday morning!

Just as Ryan Hutchins and I were putting the finishing touches on our story about Democrats sounding the alarm about Sen. Bob Menendez, the Stockton Polling Institute — the same pollster that shocked everyone by showing Menendez leading Republican Bob Hugin by just 2 points — showed Menendez ahead by 12 points.

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So, on the one hand we have data that does not show a toss-up race. (FiveThirtyEight has Menendez at over a 90 percent chance of winning). The House race polls have been good for Democrats, too. On the other we have anecdotes and nervous Democrats who are not on the campaign but have seen troubling county and congressional internal data for Menendez. And Hugin is running around saying his internal polls show him 2 points ahead (In my opinion, people talking about internal polls but not providing them should be treated the same as anecdotal evidence). But you know Democratic concern is real when D.C. Dems keep buying ads.

So here’s the situation, best as I can read it: Democrats not on the Menendez campaign are convinced Hugin has a significant chance at winning. This feeling is likely reinforced by Menendez’s weak showing in the June primary. The Hugin campaign, obviously, is sounding confident. And those I’ve talked to on the Menendez campaign, even on background, are totally confident. But regardless of the polls that show Menendez winning, Democrats not on the campaign aren‘’t as confident. Patrick Murray, New Jersey’s leading pollster, is pointing to his poll from last month that showed Menendez with a 9-12 point lead and doesn’t think much has changed since then.

Data is a better indicator than anecdotal evidence. It can also be flawed. So what do I think about this race? Sorry, but I really don’t know.

One day to go until polls open.

WHERE’S MURPHY? No public schedule from his office, but he’s all over the northern half of the state today doing election events.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Assemblyman Wayne DeAngelo, Murphy ‘Inside Man’ Brendan Gill, PVSC’s Michael Mecca, Rutherford Councilman Mark Goldsack

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “You go to the airport and they put you in first class. It’s just one of the perks of being an elected official. It’s like going into a shop and they give you a cup of coffee because you are a policeman. Is that a bribe? Give me a break” — West New York Mayor Felix Roque, defending Sen. Menendez

OUTBREAK — “Adenovirus victim’s parents: Shut down Wanaque center where 10 children died,” by The record’s Scott Fallon: “The parents of a 4-year-old girl who they say died in a viral outbreak that has killed nine other severely debilitated children at a long-term care center in Wanaque are calling for the facility to be shut down because they say their daughter was neglected. In an interview at their home in East Orange on Thursday night, the couple said their daughter, Dorcase Ephraime Dolcin, was one of the first children to die during an outbreak of adenovirus at the Wanaque Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation that is now in its sixth week. ‘It is negligence because they don’t take full responsibility for what happened over there,’ said Ocroimy Dolcin, the girl’s father. ‘They’re just satisfied to make money, not to take care of the sick people.’ The girl’s mother, Modeline Auguste, added: ‘In order for me to be happy, the facility has to be closed.’” Read the report

THIS IS A DEBATE? — “Should it be illegal for N.J. cops to drink while carrying guns? Grieving family says yes,” by NJ Advance Media’s Rebecca Everett: “In Iowa, the threshold for when you’re too drunk to carry a gun is the same as driving: .08. Many states have similar laws — but not New Jersey. It may be because the state’s strict laws mean most carrying handguns are current or retired officers, and you might think cops know better than to get drunk while armed. But that’s exactly what happened when Michael Gaffney lost his life to a drunk, off-duty cop in 2016. Now that his killer has been convicted, his loved ones want lawmakers to create and pass a bill they’re calling ‘Gaffney’s Law,’ named for the 37-year-old Piscataway father killed during a fight with a then-Newark cop outside a Union Township bar in 2016 … Not long after Gaffney died, his friend started a petition on Change.org calling for ‘Gaffney’s Law’ to make it illegal for police officers to drink while armed with a handgun or to carry weapons into any bar or establishment where they plan to drink. Valdes said they now think it should apply to anyone who has a handgun in New Jersey.” Read the report

—“Ex-N.J. attorney gen.: What minority communities can do for safety in this climate of extremism” Read the op-ed

NJ REPUBLICANS FURIOUS THAT ONCE-PERFECT NJ TRANSIT FELL APART ON JAN 16, 2018 — “N.J. Transit commute mess: ‘A level of incompetence I’ve never quite seen before’” by The New York Times’ Patrick McGeehan: “New Jersey Transit faced another round of major delays on Friday that infuriated thousands of commuters, capping a week of problems that symbolized its descent from one of the nation’s best railways to one of its most troubled. The cascade of problems increased pressure on Gov. Philip D. Murphy, who has made revitalizing the railroad a priority after taking office this year. Just as the Friday commute was starting, an Amtrak car derailed in one of the two single-track tunnels under the Hudson River between Pennsylvania Station and New Jersey, officials said. No injuries were reported, but the effect on the commute was significant. Amtrak reported delays of up to an hour for the commuter railroads that share Penn Station with Amtrak, New Jersey Transit and the Long Island Rail Road. Trains were largely on schedule again by early afternoon. The delays have become a familiar refrain to riders of New Jersey Transit, the country’s second busiest railroad, and [the] bleak streak has raised the political heat on Mr. Murphy, a Democrat, who called the transit system a `national disgrace‘ when he ran for governor last year.” Read the report

HE TAKES NO PLEASURE IN THIS AT ALL — “Sweeney will stay out of Alvarez probe,” by The New Jersey Globe’s Nikita Biryukov: “Senate President Steve Sweeney started to steer clear of the Select Committee’s investigation into Gov. Phil Murphy’s hiring of former Schools Development Authority [chief of staff] Al Alvarez [last] week, much as he did during the Select Committee investigation into Bridgegate. … Sweeney deferred a number of questions, including ones on the timeline and scope of the investigation to Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg, who, along with Assemblywoman Eliana Pintor Marin, is the select committee’s co-chair. Sources close to the Senate President say the effort is a deliberate one, both to ease political tensions with Murphy spawned by the Democrat-controlled legislature’s creation of the committee and to provide the committee with a shield of sorts.” Read the report

JUST TELL TRUMP IT WOULD BENEFIT JERSEY CITY’S TRUMP TOWERS — “Not just the tunnel? Bergen light rail extension may be stuck in Trump’s pipeline,” by The Record’s Curtis Tate: “NJ Transit has not received approval from the federal government to go ahead with the long-sought 10-mile extension of the Hudson-Bergen Light Rail into Bergen County, said Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg, D-Teaneck. ‘They have not heard anything positive back from the federal government,’ Weinberg said. Further, Weinberg said the Federal Transit Administration has changed the cost-sharing formula. Whereas the existing light rail network from Bayonne to North Bergen was built with an 80/20 or 70/30 federal/state cost share, she said, New Jersey may have to come up with half of the extension’s $2 billion cost.” Read the report

MILLION DOLLAR LISTING (AS IN THE LISTING OF A GIANT SHIP ABOUT TO SINK) — “New NJ Transit division to take advantage of hefty real estate portfolio,” by NJ Spotlight’s John Reitmeyer: “New Jersey Transit is among the mass-transit agencies that rely the most on fare revenues, according to a recent audit, which suggested a hefty real-estate portfolio could be better leveraged to bring in more for the operating budget. Several weeks after the release of the audit that raised this issue, Gov. Phil Murphy has signed into law a measure requiring NJ Transit to establish a new division that will concentrate solely on real estate, economic development and so-called transit-oriented development that is generally located within walking distance of train stations. The new law also requires NJ Transit to provide both the administration and lawmakers a host of information about its real estate every year, including a full inventory of all agency-owned properties and projections of their revenue-generating potential.” Read the report

—Mulshine: “NJ Transit debacle: Portal plan is a bridge too far for affordability” Read the column

—“These N.J. Legislature seats are also up for grabs Tuesday. Here’s who’s running” Read the report

—PARCC scores prove charter schools are working, advocates say Read the report

—”Minority children and students learning English gain most on state achievement tests” Read the report

—“N.J. hotel workers will head to polls on paid time off, thanks to union” Read the report

—Poll finds strong support for $500M school bond referendum Read the report

—“Administration, lawmakers at odds over redo of massive pharmacy benefits contract” Read the report

— “Adenovirus victim’s parents: Shut down Wanaque center where 10 children die” Read the report

—”Vote count could get ‘little dicey’ due to NJ vote-by-mail change” Read te report

24 HOURS TO GO — “In the campaign’s final days, Menendez and Hugin are out swinging,” by POLITICO’s Katherine Landergan: “Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez and challenger Bob Hugin, a Republican, are racing across the state in the campaign’s final hours, with each one arguing that the other is the wrong choice for New Jerseyans. Menendez and Hugin are trying to scoop up every last-minute vote they can in what has become an unexpectedly competitive race, one that has Democrats worried as they seek to challenge the GOP’s control of the Senate. Both men are emphasizing the negative as they crisscross the state. ‘Two things are clear: this election is about right and wrong,’ Hugin said after greeting supporters in Flemington on Sunday. ‘You have a guy who has demonstrated a track record of corruption. … I’m going to serve the people of New Jersey honorably.’ Menendez brought Democratic muscle with him at a rally in East Brunswick on Sunday: Gov. Phil Murphy, Sen. Cory Booker, Rep. Frank Pallone, Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman and Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin, among others. `This is a black and white election,‘ Murphy told the crowd. ‘It’s either a vote for Sen. Bob Menendez, or frankly a vote — I hate to say it — a vote for Donald Trump.’” Read the report

THAT’S THE IDEA — “They hate Menendez, but hate Trump more. Could these voters swing the election?” by NJ Advance Media’s Adam Clark: “Ask Drew Kanevsky what he thinks about U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, and the registered Democrat doesn’t hold back. Menendez, a fellow Democrat, is crooked, a disaster, the kind of guy who ‘lacks the integrity and moral compass to represent me,’ Kanevsky, of Belleville, said. Still, there’s a chance Kanevsky will head to the to polls Tuesday, close the curtain and do something he really, really doesn’t want to do: vote for Menendez. ‘I think the president is a joke,’ Kanevsky said, explaining his dilemma. ‘The No. 1 thing I would like from my senator is to go down there and be a strong check on the president.’ For Democrats with lukewarm feelings about Menendez, Kanevsky just summed up this year’s high-stakes Senate race in a nutshell. When asked to choose between a Democrat whose bribery and corruption case ended in a mistrial or a Republican, Bob Hugin, they think will rubber stamp President Donald Trump’s agenda, they’ll probably take the Democrat, no matter how much they dislike him. ‘I’m definitely holding my nose,’ Mia Moore, a Princeton Democrat, said. ‘I am from Chicago, so I am kind of used to voting for seedy people anyway.’” Read the report

HUGIN NOT A HUGGER? — “Wife of GOP candidate slams treatment of child by Hugin campaign,” by New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein: “The wife of a Republican congressional candidate is bashing Bob Hugin again [Sunday] after finding out that a campaign staffer mistreated her nine-year-old daughter at a campaign rally yesterday. Rochelle Kipnis initially accepted Hugin’s apology late last night on an earlier incident where when she took to Facebook to criticize the Republican U.S. Senate candidate for snapping at her and her daughters, who were passing out campaign literature for Daryl Kipnis, the Republican running against Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman. ‘Actually, it’s not over,’ Kipnis told the New Jersey Globe. ‘Apparently Team Hugin … had the nerve to yell at my child and tell her not to pass out her dads’ literature and tell her she should ‘sit down, not pass out literature, and be quiet.’ She told my child, ‘This Rally is for Bob Hugin and your literature is not to passed out.’ Kipnis posted on Facebook that the Hugin campaign sought to issue a statement [Saturday] night mitigating the seriousness of her complaints. ‘I received quotes from his team asking me to make statements that were not true and so far from the truth that it was insulting,’ Kipnis said.” Read the report

—“Unhappy with Hugin and Menendez? Here are N.J.’s 6 other Senate candidates” Read the report

—“Malinowski campaign shuts down the block in Summit where Hugin lives” Read the report

IT WON’T MOVE VOTES BUT IT’S A MORE TELLING ENDORSEMENT THAN MARC DUNEC — “Former Republican Senator Martin Favors Sherrill for Congress,” by InsiderNJ’s Fred Snowflack: “Jay Webber’s first foray into Morris County politics was challenging then-state Sen. Robert Martin in the 2003 Republican primary. Martin prevailed in a race that was pretty contentious. So, it’s not surprising that Martin, who left the Senate in 2008, and Webber are not buddy-buddy. But it still was a bit of an eyebrow-raiser Friday afternoon to see Martin show up at a veterans’ event in Morris Plains hosted by Democratic congressional candidate Mike Sherrill, Webber’s opponent in the ongoing race for Congress in the 11th District … Martin said he favors Sherrill in the race, primarily because he doesn’t like Donald Trump. ‘Trump is threatening us with some of his actions,’ Martin said, faulting the president for disrespecting some of America’s traditional allies.” Read the column

STEINBERG RIGHT AHEAD! — “I served under President Bush: I left the GOP to vote Dem. Trump is a fascist, a danger to our republic,” by Alan J. Steinberg for The Star-Ledger: “The only check on Trump’s relentless drive for autocratic power is our system of checks and balances and separation of powers. This is why I have left the Republican Party and urge the election of a Democratic House of Representatives and Senate.” Read the op-ed

—“For 3 decades, court rules aimed to stop GOP from intimidating minority voters. Not this election” Read the report

—“Activists protest Essex County contract with ICE to hold immigrants at jail” Read the report

—“Gov. Kean wants Lance back in Congress” Read the report

—“3rd District candidates battle for key demographic: Seniors” Read the report

CARCINOGENIC CITY — “Newark’s water breaches levels for dangerous contaminant. And nearby towns are drinking it, too,” by NJ Advance Media’s Michael Warren and Karen Yi: “First it was lead. Now it’s a likely carcinogenic chemical. Newark has again violated a federal standard, allowing a potentially cancer-causing contaminant to flow through the drinking water — and the water it sells to nearby towns, according to state test records. The state records show Newark’s water contains high levels of haloacetic acids, a group of five possibly carcinogenic chemicals that are byproducts of the water disinfection process. People exposed to elevated levels of haloacetic acids for years are at an increased risk of getting cancer, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The test results deal yet another blow to public trust in Newark’s water system. The city is already under pressure to address elevated levels of lead in its drinking water and recently acknowledged it wasn’t properly treating the water for corrosive properties at one of its plants.” Read the report

TRENTON PD — “Trenton’s acting police director was investigated for race-baiting entrapment plot,” by The Trentonian’s Penny Ray and Isaac Avilucea: “Carol Russell, the African American retired sergeant who Mayor Reed Gusciora nominated to be the city’s next police director, allegedly plotted to entrap white cops for harassment of minorities, according to a confidential investigative report obtained by this newspaper. The allegations were brought to the attention of Mercer County officials in the fall of 1999 after investigators from the Middlesex Prosecutor’s Office conducted a surveillance operation and allegedly overheard Russell and at least one other city cop speaking with attorney Robin Lord at a restaurant in East Brunswick. According to the report, Russell, Lord and three other people allegedly discussed ‘entrapping other police officers while on traffic stops and field interrogations.‘ However, no one was ever charged in connection with the alleged plot. Their ‘talk centered around racial profiling and how patrol officers could be set up for harassment charges,‘ according to the report, which alleges the plan was to record the encounters and sell the videos to PBS and Good Morning America.” Read the report

—“Questions abound regarding Russell’s residency” Read the report

CHANCE OF LOSING GOES FROM 99.998% TO 99.999% — “GOP Assembly candidate left off ballots, clerk sends corrected forms,” by The The Record’s Owen Proctor and Nicholas Katzban: “A so-called printing error led to the omission of a Republican candidate’s name on ballots in select Essex County towns, but election officials are working to correct the mistake. Irene DeVita, who is running as a Republican to claim the remainder of Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver’s term as a representative from the 34th District — which includes Clifton — in the General Assembly, was left off mail-in and sample ballots in Montclair, East Orange and Orange. ‘The process was fouled up somewhere along the way,’ DeVita said. ‘This shouldn’t have happened.’ Christopher Durkin, the Essex County clerk, called the mistake a ‘printing error,’ adding that his office has sent corrected sample ballots to all registered voters and mail-in ballots to the 4,700 voters who had requested one. All of the ballots sent to voters in Clifton, the one other town in that district, were correct, the Passaic County Clerk’s Office confirmed.” Read the report

FINALLY, A DEMOCRAT SETH GROSSMAN CAN RELATE TO — “Egg Harbor City Democrat candidate’s posts called racist, transphobic,” by The Press of Atlantic City’s Molly Bilinksi and Michele Brunetti Post: “Reed B. Cramer Sr., 41, is a fabricator/welder who is running on a ticket with 40-plus-year incumbent Councilman Edward Dennis and Councilman Mason Wright. Cramer also is co-founder and chairman of the Egg Harbor City Neighborhood Watch, a graduate of Absegami High School and a U.S. Navy veteran … At issue are a pair of Facebook posts Cramer made last year. ‘Dear Transgender Community,’ Cramer wrote June 9, 2017. ‘Thank you for taking it upon yourselves to effectively sterilizing (sic) yourselves, thereby preventing you from reproducing.’ Later in the same post: ‘On a side note, and I’ll probably be revisiting these topics in the future, LBGTQ … RSTLN … can I buy a vowel?’ he wrote. ‘If (expletive) Shameless feels the need to explore all the variations of your society, you know you’re (expletive) up. Just sayin.’ On Aug. 23, 2017, he shared a post from another account that said, ‘I’m proud to be white. I bet no one passes this on because they are scared of (sic) be called a racist.’ …. Atlantic County Democrats Chairman Michael Suleiman and Vice Chairwoman Audrey Miles condemned Cramer’s posts in a statement Friday:” Read the report

VOTERS TO SKIP THIS RACE, COMPLAIN ABOUT NASTY POLITICS ANYWAY — “Two pals run friendly campaign to be mayor of Morris Plains,” by The Daily Record’s Peggy Wright: “Sal Cortese and Jason Karr would vote for each other if they weren’t both running to be borough mayor on Tuesday. Cortese, a Republican, and Karr, a Democrat, are friends and as fellow Morris Plains council members, they have worked together to manage the budget and infrastructure of the tiny, 2.6-square-mile borough. Both hope to succeed Republican Mayor Frank Druetzler, who opted not to run for another four-year term after 32 years in office. But neither will agonize if the other wins and Cortese will have two years left on his three-year council seat while Karr will have one year left. ‘He’s a gentleman. He’s a good friend and it’s very hard to say anything negative about Jason,’ Cortese said of Karr, the only Democrat on the council.” Read the report

VOTERS TO REALIZE, LIKE, WHOA, I HAVE A VOICE HERE — “NJ legal weed: How will marijuana legalization impact local elections?” by The Record’s Kristin Cattafi: “New Jersey is now a patchwork of communities that have adopted bans on recreational and medical marijuana sales within municipal lines. The town-by-town prohibitions have been approved by municipal government throughout the state in anticipation of a state law that would legalize cannabis sales for recreational use. Legalizing marijuana has been one of Gov. Phil Murphy’s biggest policy pushes. The details of a law that would do that are continuing to be debated in the state Legislature. Meanwhile, the volume of the bans will be one of the determining factors in how easy it could be to obtain marijuana if recreational sales become legal or if medical uses are expanded. ‘I think this is the biggest issue by far locally,’ Alyssa Dawson, a Republican councilwoman running for re-election in Westwood, said … Across the country, 62 percent of Americans are in support of legalization of marijuana and the number jumps to 74 percent among Millennials, according to data released by the Pew Research Center. So the effect the bans will have when it comes time to chose candidates for local offices is not yet known.” Read the report

BOMB HAD NOT YET BEEN WEAPONIZED BY ANY SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENTS — “Compost toilet materials mistaken for bomb creates messy situation on Route 9 in Marlboro,” by The Asbury Park Press’ Erik Larsen: “Rush hour traffic was brought to a standstill on Route 9 on Friday evening over fears that a school bus had been converted into a bomb. In the end, what was inside a large bag wrapped in what appeared to be electrical wires were materials for construction of a compost toilet, said Capt. Frederick J. Reck of the Marlboro Township Police Department.” Read the report

—“Bergen County Sheriff race: Expected debate fireworks never arrive” Read the report

—“Paterson: Andre Sayegh starts rebuilding his campaign fund” Read the report

—“Sign of the times? Local ballot questions ask voters to weigh in on school security” Read the report

—“The ‘sex with Bigfoot’ movie starring an N.J. school board candidate is even worse than it sounds” Read the report

—“Plan would hit Jersey City businesses with tax to fund schools” Read the report

R.I.P. — “Burt Sebold, Essex Democratic stalwart, dies at 84” Read the report

WATER — “New Jersey American Water charged too much; now, it must pay you back,” by The Asbury Park Press’ David P. Willis: “If you’re a New Jersey American Water customer, you’re getting paid back, with interest, for what was essentially a loan to the state’s largest water utility. Customers paid more after New Jersey American Water temporarily hiked customers’ water and sewer bills in June to collect an additional $75 million in revenues, money the utility said would help cover the cost of system upgrades. But in a settlement with the state Board of Public Utilities and the state Rate Counsel, the company agreed that its rate would be raised by a lower figure: $40 million. ‘Now they have to return everyone’s money,’ said Stefanie Brand, director of the state Division of Rate Counsel.” Read the report

WHAT ACTIVITY COULD YOUNG PEOPLE POSSIBLY DO MORE OF SO THAT POLITICIANS DON’T IGNORE THEM? — “These college students are tired of being ignored by politicians,” by The Asbury Park Press’ Jerry Carino: “Lauren Deinhardt had one burning question for Congressional candidates who spoke at Brookdale Community College a few weeks back. What’s your plan to curb the opioid epidemic? … And she couldn’t even ask her incumbent congressman, Chris Smith, because he didn’t attend the forum. Welcome to the frustration of life as a young adult in today’s political climate. I met with a diverse group of six Brookdale students Thursday, to take their pulse on the midterm election. All of them are voting Tuesday, four for the first time … They all agreed: There’s only one way to change that. ‘Older people are the ones voting, the ones deciding,‘ said Maria Monzon, a 19-year-old sophomore from Long Branch. ‘We have this chance to make a difference. Finally, we’re starting to realize that.‘” Read the report

ALL WE NEED TO DO IS HAVE SOME MORE BIG WARS — “Are veterans going extinct in New Jersey? Data predicts dwindling numbers in 30 years,” by The Asbury Park Press’ Susanne Cervenka: “New Jersey’s veterans population could shrink to a third of today’s size over the next three decades, according to projections from the U.S. Veterans Administration. The federal government predicts veterans populations will decline overall nationally, but the dropoff is expected to be steeper in the Garden State. The Veterans Administration estimates the number of veterans will decline by more than 40 percent by 2045 compared to the 2015 levels, according to data estimates from its Veteran Population Projection Model 2016. Meanwhile, New Jersey’s veteran population is expected to drop by about 68 percent in the same time period.” Read the report

— “$10K cash fell out of armored truck. This honest guy found it, turned it in” Read the report

—“Wayne pediatric cancer survivor inspires through children’s book, ‘Dream On’” Read the report

—”Runaway pig returned home safely by local police officers” Read the report