More NJ Counties Backslide In Coronavirus Crisis: Here’s Where – Moorestown, NJ Patch

NEW JERSEY – A new report says key metrics in the coronavirus crisis have risen in seven New Jersey counties, showing that the Garden State has backslid in its management of the pandemic. The report was issued as Gov. Phil Murphy, speaking during a Monday news conference, announced 346 new coronavirus cases and three more deaths (you can watch it here, below).

The state Department of Health’s “COVID-19 Activity Level Report,” which is issued weekly, says the coronavirus activity level rose from “low” to “moderate” over the past week in seven New Jersey counties.

New Jersey’s statewide activity also rose from “low” to “moderate” now that cases have been on the rise in recent days. New Jersey had its largest two-day total in a month last week. Read more: Gov. Murphy: NJ’s Biggest 2-Day Coronavirus Case Total In A Month

The seven counties that saw a rise were:

  • Burlington
  • Camden
  • Gloucester
  • Middlesex
  • Monmouth
  • Ocean
  • Salem

Murphy said the new report provides regional metrics for health and safety risks “that have further guided our decision-making” in reopening New Jersey.

Indeed, the report was issued as New Jersey took some of its biggest reopening steps over the past two weeks, including the restart of schools, indoor dining, indoor amusements and movie theaters. Read more: NJ Prepares For Possible Second Coronavirus Wave As School Starts

By rising to a “moderate” level, state officials said, school districts in those counties may have to take more serious steps – such as quarantining or even shutting down schools – if a child shows the symptoms of COVID-19.

“If you’re in a very low-risk district, then you don’t need to treat it quite as harshly as if you’re in a much higher transmission community where the risk of that person actually having COVID is much higher,” said Edward Lifshitz, medical director for the state Department of Health.

Here is what the report says:

Key metrics rising in seven counties

The report divides New Jersey into regions and assesses their rates of new cases, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The rate of COVID-like illness (CLI) rose by 12 percent in Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean counties. These illnesses are defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of other types of coronavirus symptoms.

The positivity rate, based on the percentage of those tested, also rose by 32 percent in those counties.

The positivity rate also rose 21 percent in Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Salem counties. That region has the highest percentage of positive cases in the state: 3.27, about 50 percent higher than the statewide rate.

The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a “current activity level” based on case rates, COVID-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.

Data

The state uses various date to determine the level of activity. Here they are:

  • Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.
  • COVID-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.
  • Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.
  • The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.

Here is the data and map for each region, including their activity levels, for the week ending Sept. 5:

Here is the map and data for the week ending Aug. 29:

The state’s COVID activity timeline

After two consecutive weeks at the “low” level, the DOH says New Jersey’s statewide activity is “moderate.”

The timeline shows that the state was at a moderate level for nearly four months. It was “high” in late in April and May, and “very high” in late March and early April.

The moderate label was first assigned before the state even publicly identified a case: February 15th.

Here is the timeline:

Watch Murphy here:

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