11 NJ Counties Backslide In Coronavirus Crisis: Heres Where – Point Pleasant, NJ Patch

NEW JERSEY – A new report says key metrics in the coronavirus crisis have risen in 11 New Jersey counties, showing that the Garden State has backslid once again in its management of the pandemic.

The state Department of Health’s “COVID-19 Activity Level Report,” which is issued weekly, says the coronavirus activity level rose from “low” to “moderate” over the past week in 11 New Jersey counties.

New Jersey’s statewide activity also rose from “low” to “moderate” now that the daily case totals topped 1,000 for the first time since May 29th. Read more: NJ’s New Daily Coronavirus Cases Top 1K, First Time Since May

State Health Judith Persichilli also said on Thursday that New Jersey will likely get a second wave of the virus as the weather gets colder and more people retreat to the indoors. Cases have been on the rise since autumn began last month (see the daily case totals below).

Gov. Phil Murphy said he may suspend further reopenings if cases continue to rise. Read more: Gov. Murphy: NJ May Stop Reopenings If COVID-19 Cases Keep Rising

The 11 counties that saw a rise were:

  • Atlantic
  • Burlington
  • Camden
  • Cape May
  • Cumberland
  • Gloucester
  • Middlesex
  • Monmouth
  • Ocean
  • Salem
  • Union

Murphy said the new report provides regional metrics for health and safety risks “that have further guided our decision-making” in reopening New Jersey.

By rising to a “moderate” level, state officials said, school districts in those counties may have to take more serious steps – such as quarantining or even shutting down schools – if a child shows the symptoms of COVID-19.

“If you’re in a very low-risk district, then you don’t need to treat it quite as harshly as if you’re in a much higher transmission community where the risk of that person actually having COVID is much higher,” said Edward Lifshitz, medical director for the state Department of Health.

Indeed, New Jersey has reported 16 outbreaks at the state’s schools since they reopened and 58 cases that led to outbreaks. A number of schools have switched to remote learning because of it, and the National Education Association is tracking districts that have been impacted.

Here is what the report says:

Key metrics rising in 11 counties

The report divides New Jersey into regions and assesses their rates of new cases, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The rate of COVID-like illness (CLI) rose by 10 percent in Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and Union counties. These illnesses are defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of other types of coronavirus symptoms.

By the same token, the positivity rate, based on the percentage of those tested, also nearly doubled, rising by 85 percent in those counties. That region now has the highest positivity rate in the state: 4.40, almost 1 point higher than the state average.

The outbreak has been particularly severe in Ocean County, and specifically Lakewood. Earlier this week, a letter signed by more than 20 doctors in the community and published by The Lakewood Scoop urged people to avoid large gatherings for the religious holiday being celebrated and also to avoid having people from outside their immediate family in their household. Read more: Lakewood Coronavirus Cases Pass 5,000 As Testing Rises

The daily new COVID-19 case rate, per 100,000 people, also nearly doubled in Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland counties, rising by 61 percent.

The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a “current activity level” based on case rates, COVID-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.

Data

The state uses various date to determine the level of activity. Here they are:

  • Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.
  • COVID-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.
  • Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.
  • The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.

Here is the data and map for each region, including their activity levels, for the week ending Oct. 3rd:

Here is the map and data for the week ending Sept. 26th:

Here is the map and data for the week ending Sept. 12th:

The state’s COVID activity timeline

After three consecutive weeks at the “low” level, the DOH says New Jersey’s statewide activity is “moderate.”

The timeline shows that the state was at a moderate level for nearly four months. It was “high” in late in April and May, and “very high” in late March and early April.

The moderate label was first assigned before the state even publicly identified a case: February 15th.

Here is the timeline:

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